Roberto Lavagna spoke yesterday of the dollar. In his own way, he implied that the dollar-cost exchange equation in this context of local and global macroeconomic crisis would not be enough to encourage exports in the amount that Argentina needs to compete. “Roberto is right, the dollar today is behind,” says a renowned economist who prefers not to go public (at least for the moment) to talk about the issue.
The former Minister of the Economy referred to the fact that Argentina needs “a real exchange rate that will boost exports and protect the local market without bureaucracy.”
In the Government there is the vision that the dollar should accompany inflation. This has happened in recent months. However, it does not seem to be enough to eliminate the anti-export bias: a soybean producer receives less than $ 50 for every dollar sold abroad and loses incentives to liquidate the beans.
For many, the dollar in Argentina is not behind the price of the US currency globally. But yes in relation to the one in Brazil. And slightly the multilateral. I mean, it depends on how you see it.
Stanley Fischer, the former number two of the IMF, had a phrase that said: “When an economy minister or president of the Central Bank begins to show that the competitiveness of the currency depends on which price index or which comparison is taken, it is because there are already currency problems. ”
Is the dollar behind today or not? Clarín consulted the following experts.
Elizabeth Bacigalupo (abeceb.com). “Looking at the multilateral real exchange rate, it is not a bad exchange rate, there is no obvious backwardness, but there is no excess either. The problem is another: the gap is high and that generates distortions and uncertainty. In this country, whenever there was a gap, the difference closed not because alternative dollars have fallen but because the official one rises. Today the blue is at the mid-2002 level ”.
Rodrigo Alvarez (Analytica). “The official exchange rate is not behind. What it is necessary to point out is the inflation of between 20% and 30% between 12 and 18 months. This is consistent with a dollar that continues to rise at a controlled rate. If this does not happen, you run a risk of losing control of the economy and with wages falling more than 10%. Inflation must be stabilized in order to then begin to grow. In that sense, there must be macroeconomic consistency due to the amount of pesos that are turning. The debt placement of the Economy yesterday shows that the market wants to get rid of the pesos at any cost.
Gabriel Rubinstein (Rubinstein & Asociados). “For me it is late. Given the level of uncertainty, a dollar 15% higher in real terms would be advisable ”.
Federico Furiase (Eco Go). “The real exchange rate is not bad but it is true that with this gap, the incentives to delay exports and borrow in pesos to import or cancel financial debts rise. Thus the trade surplus will be consumed, the market will take pesos at negative rates and will be dollarized via bonds. This will put more pressure on the gap and in turn on reserves. But closing the gap with a jump in the dollar will lead to an acceleration of inflation.
Gabriel Caamaño (Ledesma Consultant). “I don’t see him late. But it is true that when one considers the uncertainty that there is not enough to this dollar.